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Fire: Increasing evidence that anthropogenic climate change has already caused significant increases in fire area globally (Section 3.4.3) is in line with projected fire risks. These risks are projected to increase further under 1.5°C of global warming relative to the present day (Section 3.4.3). Under 1.2°C of global warming, fire frequency has been estimated to increase by over 37.8% of global land areas, compared to 61.9% of global land areas under 3.5°C of warming. For in-depth discussion and uncertainty estimates, see Meehl et al. (2007), Moritz et al. (2012) and Romero-Lankao et al. (2014)1127.
Fire: Some regions of the world are already at or above their fire risk thresholds in terms of frequency and intensity. These include many regions in Africa (van Vuuren et al., 2010)1438; South and Southeast Asia (Jaguaribe et al., 2010)369; and large parts of North America and Europe (Blackburn et al., 2013; Brown et al., 2013)1502; see Section 3.4.4 for more details. These risks are projected to rise under 1.2°C (Medlyn et al., 2013)1439, under 1.5°C (Medlyn et al., 2013)1440, and under 2°C and 3°C of global warming (Medlyn et al., 2013)1441. For more details about changes in fire risk, see Jackson et al. (2012)1443; Medlyn et al. 2012, 2014.) 7211a4ac4a
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